| Objectives |
The aim of the project is to set up a network of experts in transport demand forecasting and scenario building in order to describe the state of the art of methodologies, but also to improve the mutual understanding of the results obtained. These results will be analysed in relation to the THINK-UP objective of a common platform of understanding for European mobility predictions.
Many forecasts are produced with their own assumptions, and their specific tools but as yet there does not exist a common basis for comparison and discussion of different results. As recent scenarios exercises have shown, new steps are now necessary in the production of trends. In particular, the contribution of different modes must be explained and quantified, so that the most effective use of transport modes or intermodal solutions can be defined and applied towards objectives of sustainable development. Such a common platform for comparison, providing a wide consensus on the main trends and the sensitivity of the transport system to policy measures will definitively help to express, not only common goals, but also common policies.
Such an approach for predicting trends thus appears as a prerequisite for the evaluation of societal needs and their translation into policy actions. This is essential so that social values can be properly introduced in the assessment of policy measures, enabling policy makers to "steer" the future in a world where uncertainty, and profound changes (technological, economic, institutional) are at work. In this sense, THINK-UP will provide a useful contribution to improvement of the Pilot SEA (Strategic Environmental Assessment) which interlinks transport activity with socio-economic factors and the environment. |
ICCR, Vienna, Austria