Michael Schmidt and
Liana Giorgi
Successes,
Failures and Prospects for the Common Transport Policy
Abstract
The paper reviews
the development of the Common Transport Policy from a
historical perspective and assesses its successes and failures
as measured by its direct outputs, i.e. the regulatory,
economic and other measures established to achieve its
objectives. Despite significant progress with regard to the
removal of barriers to competition either through positive
regulation - the harmonization of social and technical
standards - or through negative regulation - the
liberalization and harmonization of the criteria for market
access - several problems remain and solutions are outstanding
with regard to the main challenges posed by sustainable
mobility, namely environmental protection and social cohesion.
In relevant action areas the Common Transport Policy is
reluctant about following through as strict a regime of policy
formulation and implementation as that adopted with regard to
market-access-related regulations since 1985. The main reason,
the authors argue, has to do with the implications of this for
national sovereignty and for subsidiarity as currently
interpreted. In the absence of a suitable regulatory framework
the approach taken is that of negotiation and incremental
improvement. Whether this is appropriate to the challenges
faced remains an open question.
Dominic Stead and David
Banister
Influencing
Mobility Outside Transport Policy
Abstract
Because levels of
mobility and car ownership have risen substantially over
recent decades (and the increase seems likely to continue),
mobility management is becoming more and more important.
Transport policy clearly has a direct impact on mobility and
can be used to influence the supply and demand for transport.
However, transport policy is not the only way to influence
mobility. Other areas of policy making (such as energy or
waste policies, for example) are also important determinants
of mobility, although the influence of these 'non-transport
policies' on mobility is often overlooked when identifying
policies for mobility management.
In this paper, we show that certain non-transport policies
might increase mobility whilst others might reduce it. For
example, macro-economic policy and land-use planning might act
to reduce travel, whilst EU enlargement and cross-border trade
agreements might act in the opposite direction and increase
travel. Non-transport policies may also indirectly affect
mobility. For example, research and development policy can
stimulate the introduction of new technology, which in turn
can have implications for the introduction of new transport
policy options (such as electronic road pricing) and
consequently mobility levels.
We present a framework with examples to conceptualize the
links (both direct and indirect) between transport policies,
non-transport policies, social and economic trends, innovation
and technology, and mobility. We then identify some of the
potential impacts of non-transport policies on mobility in
more qualitative terms, including a review of the role of
land-use planning, ICT (information, communications and
technology) and macro-economic policies in influencing
mobility.
We conclude that thinking must change about solutions to
transport problems. Transport policies alone may not be enough
to manage mobility effectively. The achievement of sustainable
transport requires transport demand to be reduced at source by
combining complementary transport policies and non-transport
policies, including technology. We also suggest that new
methods of analysis are required to reflect the true
complexity of change in travel that is now taking place. This
complexity has arisen from a combination of factors, including
non-transport policies, and the range of responses from
individuals and firms to this new flexibility needs to be
understood.
Kerry M. Malone with
Erik Verroean, Kim Korver and Arjen Heyma
The Scenario Explorer for Passenger Transport: A Strategic
Model for Long-term Travel Demand Forecasting
Abstract
The demand for
passenger mobility has grown exponentially in Europe in the
past 25-30 years. Policy makers place great emphasis on the
ability to predict, analyse and manage the growth of passenger
mobility. Predicting passenger mobility, especially 15 or more
years into the future, requires taking into account the most
relevant variables in the modelling process. For example,
accounting directly for the effects of the diversification of
leisure time or the increase in individualization, and their
consequent (potential) impact on the demand for mobility.
These trends are difficult to quantify. The ability to account
for these and other important variables is important in the
process of modelling the demand for mobility. The
scenario-development process can be used to identify these
trends.
The use of scenarios can assist planners and researchers in
predicting mobility in the following three ways: (1) they
assist in structuring, understanding and thinking through a
changing situation. There are general global developments that
affect the demand for mobility, in addition to specific
transport-related trends and trend breaks; (2) scenarios focus
attention on the structural uncertainty of the most critical
factors; (3) the process of developing scenarios increases the
capability of the developers to understand the environment in
which the transport system functions. During the process of
developing scenarios, a strong cause-and-effect reasoning is
used. This logical approach can also be employed to think
through the consequences of possible developments.
The Scenario Explorer is a scenario-based model developed at
TNO Inro and financed by the Ministry of Transport, Public
Works and Water Management. This model takes mobility
prediction a step further in the direction of consistent
scenario development and quantification. It provides strategic
results at the national level for The Netherlands. It takes a
novel approach to modelling in that it is not based on
explicit detailed networks and zone systems. On the other
hand, it does not make traditional transport models obsolete
but rather enables policy analyses that can be followed by
more detailed studies using traditional methods.
This paper provides a description of the Scenario Explorer as
well as examples of how it models the dynamics present in the
environment of the transport system, accounts for the context
sensitivity of policies, and accounts for the effect of
non-transport policies on the transport system.
Patricia L.
Mokhtarian, Ilan Salomon and Lothlorien S. Redmond
Understanding the Demand for Travel: It's Not Purely 'Derived'
Abstract
We contest the
derived demand paradigm for travel as a behavioural absolute.
To the contrary, we suggest that travel has an intrinsic
positive utility and is valued for its own sake, not just as a
means of reaching a destination. We argue that the same
positive characteristics that lead people to engage in travel
as a recreational activity in itself are likely to motivate
them to engage in apparently excess travel in the context of
their mandatory and maintenance activities as well. This paper
explores the conceptual basis of a positive utility for travel,
and presents some results from an ongoing empirical study of
attitudes toward travel. In modelling distance travelled (in
each of 11 categories), we found that subjective variables
such as Travel Liking, the adventure-seeker Personality trait,
the travel stress Attitudinal factor, and the Excess Travel
indicator added considerable explanatory power to the
Demographic variables traditionally used in such models. It
appears that, far from being completely determined by
demographically based needs, the amount of travel demanded is
heavily influenced by one's attitudes toward travel. This is
not only true for discretionary (entertainment) purposes, as
would be expected, but for more 'mandatory' purposes such as
work/school-related activities as well. We are convinced that
the demand for travel arises from a fundamental human need for
mobility and other subjective characteristics, as well as from
the external causes typically measured. To more accurately
forecast travel demand and policy response, the role of those
subjective characteristics needs to be understood much better
than it is at present.
