Introduction 

Respondents to the second wave of the FORESIGHT Delphi survey were asked to give an estimation of how the various trends reviewed in the previous section will develop in the future. In this section we report on these results. The question format was as follows. Respondents were presented with the statement and then asked to estimate separately for the short-term (2004-2009), medium-term (2010-2019) and long-term (2020+) whether they thought the trend would persist in the same way or be higher or lower. Example. Over the last 30 years the share of persons in the age range 60+ in the European Union has grown by over 40 per cent, representing an average 1.3 per cent annual increase. A similar trend has been observed in the New Member States since 1996. Do you expect this trend (1.3 per cent annual increase) to be higher or lower in the next years? Short-term (2004-2010) Lower             Same              Higher            Don't know    Medium-term (2011-2019) Lower              Same              Higher            Don't know      Longer-term (2020+) Lower              Same               Higher            Don't know    Depending on the formulation of the question, the answers were recoded so as to indicate whether the respondent thought the trend would continue in the future or whether a trend-break could be expected. In the above example, for instance, respondents answering ‘same’ or ‘higher’ were classified as indicating that the trend would continue in the future, whereas respondents answering ‘lower’ were classified as indicating a possible reversal of the trend towards a trend-break. This figure visualises the ideal-opinion states. The closer the graphic representation of respondents’ answers comes to the 45 degree tangent (the ‘reference’ line in subsequent figures), the more we may talk about the trend continuing into the future. The mirror image of this (135 degree tangent) corresponds instead to the trend-break. The horizontal line indicates that the answers are divided in such a way that we should instead speak of a contested future.

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