Futures - Technology

Please rate the following technology futures with regard to (a)     how likely they are (b)     how desirable they are where ‘1’ corresponds to ‘very likely’ / ‘very desirable’ and ‘5’ to ‘very unlikely’ / ‘not desirable at all’. Use ‘9’ if you do not know or have no opinion. Future 1: ‘Low / incremental innovation’ Technological change and innovation proceeds incrementally. The effect on transport is minimal. Expenditures on RTD stagnate both from government and business. The interaction between technology and industry follows the traditional pattern of slow diffusion and uptake. Future 2: ‘Technological breakthrough’ Technological innovation is driven by the economy and proceeds in leaps. New technologies revolutionise life styles as well as production modes and forms of work. There are significant impacts on transport and mobility.   Future 3: ‘Technological breakdown’ Technological development breaks down and there is hardly any investment in RTD. New economy sectors also break down. The result is a serious confidence crisis.

Likelihood of Technology Futures (%)
		Tech_Future 1		Tech_Future 2		Tech_Future 3
		Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2
very likely	1	13,9	10,7	2,5	0,0	0,6	0,0		Tech_Future 1 : Low innovation
2		34,8	50,0	29,1	21,8	1,9	3,6		Tech_Future 2 : Technological breakthrough
3		31,6	30,4	34,8	47,3	10,3	0,0		Tech_Future 3 : Technological breakdown
4		15,2	5,4	26,6	30,9	36,5	38,2
not at all	5	4,4	3,6	7,0	0,0	50,6	58,2
Total valid	N	158	56	158	55	156	55

 

Desirability of Technology Futures (%)
		Tech_Future 1		Tech_Future 2		Tech_Future 3
		Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2
very desired	1	3,2	3,7	17,6	16,7	3,3	0,0
2		13,6	13	43,1	59,3	0,7	0,0
3		26,6	50	27,5	22,2	1,3	1,8
4		38,3	27,8	9,2	1,9	17,0	10,9
not at all	5	18,2	5,6	2,6	0,0	77,8	87,3
Total valid	N	154	54	153	54	153	55

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