Futures - Environmental

Please rate the following environment futures with regard to (a)     how likely they are (b)     how desirable they are where ‘1’ corresponds to ‘very likely’ / ‘very desirable’ and ‘5’ to ‘very unlikely’ / ‘not desirable at all’. Use ‘9’ if you do not know or have no opinion. Future 1: ‘Strong sustainability’ Through education there is a paradigm shift in values leading to less mobility and different forms of urban development, hence to a massive CO2 reduction. Environmental quality is prioritised over economic growth. Technology / economic measures are used supplementarily. Future 2: ‘Weak sustainability driven by technology’ Transport demand continues to grow. The main goal is welfare maximisation and economic growth. Technological solutions are sought to environmental problems. Environmental quality slowly increases but with no change with regard to safety and the fragmentation of habitat. Future 3: ‘Weak sustainability driven by economy’ Transport demand continues to growth. Economic measures are used to address environmental problems. These include road pricing, fuel taxes, tax incentives for alternative fuel vehicles and a reduction of subsidies for private transport. The transport intensity of economic production declines. Environmental quality increases, but slowly. Future 4: ‘Environmental degradation’ There is no technological breakthrough and economic measures are not applied. Environmental degradation continues in parallel with transport growth. There is an increase in noise levels, deaths, emission rates and related diseases.

Likelihood of Environmental Futures (%)
		Env_Future 1		Env_Future 2		Env_Future 3		Env_Future 4
		Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2
very likely	1	3,8	0,0	18,5	1,6	14,8	6,3	6,9	1,6		Env_Future 1 : Strong sustainability
2		5,7	4,7	44,4	57,1	46,9	54,7	22,5	18,8		Env_Future 2 : Weak sustainability / technology
3		27,0	21,9	26,5	33,3	28,4	34,4	28,1	32,8		Env_Future 3 : Weak sustainability / economy
4		34,0	42,2	8,6	6,3	9,3	4,7	29,4	42,2		Env_Future 4 : Degradation
not at all	5	29,6	31,3	1,9	1,6	0,6	0,0	13,1	4,7
Total valid	N	159	64	162	63	162	64	160	64

 

Desirability of Environmental Futures (%)
		Env_Future 1		Env_Future 2		Env_Future 3		Env_Future 4
		Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2
very desired	1	42,0	46,0	3,8	3,2	6,9	3,2	1,9	0,0
2		33,8	42,9	16,4	21,0	35,2	25,4	1,3	1,6
3		15,9	6,3	35,2	50,0	27,7	54,0	1,3	1,6
4		4,5	1,6	30,2	21,0	24,5	15,9	8,4	9,5
not at all	5	3,8	3,2	14,5	4,8	5,7	1,6	87,0	87,3
Total valid	N	157	63	159	62	159	63	154	63

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