Futures - Enlargement

Please rate the following enlargement futures with regard to

(a)     how likely they are
(b)     how desirable they are

where ‘1’ corresponds to ‘very likely’ / ‘very desirable’ and ‘5’ to ‘very unlikely’ / ‘not desirable at all’. Use ‘9’ if you do not know or have no opinion.

Future 1: ‘Integrated Europe’
Economic convergence is achieved and international trade flourishes. Specialisation leads to structural changes in the production of goods. EU budget sources increase and are redistributed according to strategic criteria. National investment priorities match European ones.

Future 2: ‘Variable geometry’
The enlarged Europe is formed in regional blocks which are variably advanced with regard to policy harmonisation and economic convergence. There are differing conditions with regard the movement of persons, access to national assets and distribution of structural funds.

Future 3: ‘Cooperative Europe’
Economic policies are re-oriented towards sustainable development principles. Institutions are reformed towards greater flexibility and this is also reflected at the micro-level. Structural policies are geared towards social and environmental concerns and intergenerational equity.

 
Likelihood of Enlargement Futures (%)
Enlarge_Future 1 Enlarge_Future 2 Enlarge_Future 3
  Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2
very likely

1

1,9 4,8 16,8 11,9 2,5 0,0 Enlarge_Future 1 : Integrated Europe
2 20,5 19,0 47,1 50,0 10,1 2,4 Enlarge_Future 2 : Variable geometry
3 47,2 54,8 25,8 35,7 39,6 33,3 Enlarge_Future 3 : Cooperative Europe
4 25,5 21,4 6,5 2,4 37,7 54,8
not at all

5

5,0 0,0 3,9 0,0 10,1 9,5
Total valid

N

161 42 155 42 159 42

 

Desirability of Enlargement Futures (%)
Enlarge_Future 1 Enlarge_Future 2 Enlarge_Future 3
  Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2
very desired

1

21,2 7,3 2,0 0,0 51,0 42,5
2 45,5 65,9 16,3 7,3 35,0 45,0
3 20,5 17,1 26,1 36,6 8,3 5,0
4 9,6 7,3 39,2 46,3 5,1 2,5
not at all

5

3,2 2,4 16,3 9,8 6,0 5,0
Total valid

N

156 41 153 41 157 40


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