Futures - Political

Please rate the following political futures with regard to (a)     how likely they are (b)     how desirable they are where ‘1’ corresponds to ‘very likely’ / ‘very desirable’ and ‘5’ to ‘very unlikely’ / ‘not desirable at all’. Use ‘9’ if you do not know or have no opinion. Future 1: ‘Political polarization / rise of extreme right’ Mistrust in political institutions increases. This strengthens right-wing extremism, political cleavages and polarization. Nation state and/or autonomous regions are winners, albeit towards (national) isolation rather than collaboration. Nationalism and chauvinism increase. Future 2: ‘Elite closure and technocracy’ Political parties and representative democracy are weakened. The media and bureaucracy gain in strength. Politics are determined by security issues. Among citizens we can observe the rise of alienation and disenfranchisement. Future 3: ‘New European identity’ This scenario foresees the emergence of a new European identity which is open and cosmopolitan. This co-exists peacefully with other identities (national, cultural, religious). Democracy is stronger and includes both representative and deliberative elements. Elite closure is overcome.

Likelihood of Political Futures (%)
		Pol_Future 1		Pol_Future 2		Pol_Future 3
		Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2
very likely	1	1,9	0,0	9,4	1,9	4,3	0,0		Pol_Future 1 : Political Polarisation
2		24,1	13,0	35,2	46,3	25,3	25,9		Pol_Future 2 : Technocracy
3		30,4	42,6	34,0	38,9	38,3	50,0		Pol_Future 3 : New European identity
4		32,9	35,2	15,1	11,1	24,7	24,1
not at all	5	10,8	9,3	6,3	1,9	7,4	0,0
Total valid	N	158	54	159	54	162	54

 

Desirability of Political Futures (%)
		Pol_Future 1		Pol_Future 2		Pol_Future 3
		Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2
very desired	1	1,3	0	0,6	0,0	53,8	54,5
2		0,6	0	3,2	0,0	33,1	34,5
3		2,6	3,6	5,8	1,8	8,8	7,3
4		13,0	12,7	25,3	45,5	3,1	3,6
not at all	5	82,5	83,6	64,9	52,7	1,3	0,0
Total valid	N	154	55	154	55	160	55

PREVIOUS (INSTITUTIONAL) | INDEX | NEXT (ENLARGEMENT)