Futures - Institutional

Please rate the following institutional futures with regard to (a)     how likely they are (b)     how desirable they are where ‘1’ corresponds to ‘very likely’ / ‘very desirable’ and ‘5’ to ‘very unlikely’ / ‘not desirable at all’. Use ‘9’ if you do not know or have no opinion. Future 1: ‘Local governance’ This represents the ‘Europe of the regions’ vision, according to which there is full decentralization so that state functions are concentrated on the sub-national level. The national and supra-national levels represent merely administrative coordination levels. Future 2: ‘Re-assertion of the nation-state’ The nation-state re-asserts its role and state functions. Cooperation follows the variable geometry model, with different countries collaborating to varying degrees on different issues. Regional power blocks are the result. Future 3: ‘Federal State Europe’ The federalist trends currently operating consolidate towards the establishment of the European Union as a federal state with a clear division of competencies and decision rules between European, national, regional and local levels. Future 4: ‘European Centralised State’ Decision-making is centralized, sub-European levels exist only as administrative units. Political participation and active citizenship are neither promoted nor valued. A hierarchical technocracy dominates and transparency is low.

Likelihood of Institutional Futures (%)
		Inst_Future 1		Inst_Future 2		Inst_Future 3		Inst_Future 4
		Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2
very likely	1	1,3	0,0	2,6	0,0	9,4	2,2	3,9	0,0		Inst_Future 1 : Local governance
2		15,1	10,9	37,4	30,4	34,4	37,8	3,2	4,3		Inst_Future 2 : Re-assertion nation state
3		31,4	34,8	32,9	52,2	33,1	51,1	20,0	4,3		Inst_Future 3 : Nation-State Europe
4		37,1	50,0	21,3	15,2	17,5	6,7	38,7	54,3		Inst_Future 4 : European Centralised State
not at all	5	15,1	4,3	5,8	2,2	5,6	2,2	34,2	37,0
Total valid	N	159	46	155	46	160	45	155	47

 

Desirability of Institutional Futures (%)
		Inst_Future 1		Inst_Future 2		Inst_Future 3		Inst_Future 4
		Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2
very desired	1	7,1	8,7	2,7	2,2	25,0	28,9	1,3	0,0
2		29,7	28,3	10,0	19,6	30,1	31,1	2,0	0,0
3		26,5	34,8	28,7	41,3	26,3	24,4	4,6	4,3
4		27,7	23,9	38,0	28,3	10,9	13,3	19,6	19,6
not at all =	5	9,0	4,3	20,7	8,7	7,7	2,2	72,5	76,1
Total valid	N	155	46	150	46	156	45	153	46

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