Futures - Social

Please rate the following social futures with regard to (a)     how likely they are (b)     how desirable they are where ‘1’ corresponds to ‘very likely’ / ‘very desirable’ and ‘5’ to ‘very unlikely’ / ‘not desirable at all’. Use ‘9’ if you do not know or have no opinion. Future 1: ‘Nordic welfare system prevails’ Inequalities decrease due to a strong commitment to the welfare system accompanied with an emphasis on activation and labour market policies. In terms of structural policies there is an emphasis on regional development and cohesion. Future 2: ‘The laissez-faire social policy model’ Welfare expenditures are low, public services are liberalized and social policies are highly fragmented. Inequality increases, precarious work conditions predominate and there is high unemployment. An aggravated urban-rural divide contributes to regional inequity. Future 3: ‘The less work more leisure social model’ Technological development supports flexibilisation and low labour participation. The trend towards less work and more leisure is backed up by a strong welfare state around basic income provisions. The voluntary sector is strong. Alternative household models prevail. Future 4: ‘Strong local welfare + temporal equity’ The time of all members of the community is valued equally, irrespective of whether or not they are in paid employment. Time giving to the community and the environment is rewarded with time credits that can be traded for social / community services. Time-based disadvantages are recognised and compensated for.

Likelihood of Social Futures (%)
		Soc_Future 1		Soc_Future 2		Soc_Future 3		Soc_Future 4
		Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2
very likely	1	2,5	0,0	10,0	4,3	3,8	0,0	0,7	0,0		Soc_Future 1 : Nordic welfare system
2		17,7	17,4	35,6	60,9	13,2	13,3	3,9	0,0		Soc_Future 2 : Laissez-faire social model
3		39,9	41,3	30,0	23,9	39,0	26,7	7,9	10,9		Soc_Future 3 : Less work social model
4		32,9	41,3	16,9	8,7	34,0	51,1	25,7	30,4		Soc_Future 4 : Local welfare
not at all	5	7,0	0,0	7,5	2,2	10,1	8,9	61,8	58,7
Total valid	N	158	46	160	46	159	45	152	46

 

Desirability of Social Futures (%)
		Soc_Future 1		Soc_Future 2		Soc_Future 3		Soc_Future 4
		Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2	Wave 1	Wave 2
very desired	1	21,2	17,4	1,3	0,0	7,6	9,1	13,2	8,9
2		48,1	67,4	2,5	0,0	36,1	38,6	19,9	20,0
3		20,5	13,0	5,7	13,0	34,8	43,2	23,8	40,0
4		7,7	2,2	30,6	37,0	15,8	9,1	29,1	26,7
not at all	5	2,6	0,0	59,9	50,0	5,7	0,0	13,9	4,4
Total valid	N	156	46	157	46	158	44	151	45

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