Futures - Transport

Please rate the following transport futures with regard to (a)     how likely they are (b)     how desirable they are where ‘1’ corresponds to ‘very likely’ / ‘very desirable’ and ‘5’ to ‘very unlikely’ / ‘not desirable at all’. Use ‘9’ if you do not know or have no opinion. Future 1: ‘Business as usual’ The contemporary largely negative trends with regard to emissions and congestion continue. There is: more transport demand; more congestion; greater number of deaths; increase in motorisation rate; and an insufficient internalization of external costs. Future 2: ‘Incremental improvement’ Short-distance and long-distance transport follow different trends. For short-distance travel we observe a decrease of motorised transport, and both for passenger and freight transport. This is the result of better land-use patterns. In terms of long-distance international travel, there is an overall increase across modes. The reduction of motorised short-distance transport mitigates the overall negative effects of transport on the environment. The rail share in transport is stabilised and there is a parallel increase of short-sea shipping. High on the transport agenda are good transport organisation, punctuality and reliability rather than speed. Future 3: ‘Transport as a public service’ International transport demand – both passenger and freight – stabilises or the rate of increase is minimal. There is a significant modal shift from road to rail and an increase of the share of intermodal and combined transport. Railways are re-nationalised. The emphasis of railway transport policy is on quality, service provision and the stabilisation of employment within the transport sector. Negative externalities with regard to emissions and congestion are kept minimal through the better balance between modes and management / quality / technological improvements. Future 4: ‘Ecological transport’ There is a significant decrease in relative and absolute terms of passenger and freight transport demand. Technology substitutes for mobility through e-commerce and e-work. Short-distance local mobility needs are primarily met through non-motorised transport. Non-motorised and shared modes of transport are supported by policy, for instance through tax breaks, company transport plans as well as RTD and ICT. Social inclusion as well as punctuality and reliability are high on the transport policy agenda. Future 5: ‘Time-based sustainable transport’ The speed-energy-environment relation is acknowledged by internalising the cost of speed through time-pricing methods (besides road-pricing). Pricing is applied to the speed of transport mode and the duration of journeys. Time savings can be purchased with money but also trade with time credits, which are held at time banks. Communities by-passed by high-speed corridors can be compensated for the impact of the high-speed system on their collective prosperity. ICT provides technical infrastructure for this dual pricing system.

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